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David Harper, CFA, FRM's avatar

This is a good illustration of the risks to new retail investors who focus on momentum--enabled by the illusion of discovery--without a valuation (not too mention dilution) discipline. I first added RKLB in 2023 at $4.05 based on following FT industry experts on Seeking Alpha, and Morgan Stanley's prescient overweight call (at the time, their price target was $10.00. To their credit, MS called RKLB early and stayed the course). When I doubled my position at $5.41, it was a speculative buy.

Today RKLB is followed by 13 Wall Street analysts, three years after institutional coverage started. Meanwhile, MS downgraded to EW. In addition to a subreddit about the company, the stock RKLB has a subreddit with >31,000 members. It's a meme stock now with over-coverage. I'm still long but this week I trimmed 1/6th (1000 of 6000 shares, happy to verify) my position because, well, that trade returned +275% my original investment.

I'm still quite long RKLB. But I'm aware of the forward EV/Sales, eg, and other valuation metrics. Obviously it's not profitable on any income/CF basis.

My valuation discipline wouldn't allow me to buy it today. And non-numerical, momentum-based narratives are totally unaware of this stock's two key risks.

The easiest way to lose money is to overpay for an unprofitable company with heavy recent meme-based momentum behind it, and daily, shallow articles on the internet due only to that momentum.

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Yu's avatar

How do you buy it?

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